2024 NFL Preseason: Grading the First-Round Rookie Quarterbacks
I watched all the first-round rookie quarterbacks this preseason and came away with 5,000 words of thoughts. Who did well? Who played poorly? Do preseason statistics deceive?
We’ve been through two preseason games, which means we’ve seen about all we’re going to see from the high rookie draft picks from the 2024 NFL draft. Three have already been named the QB1 for the season for their respective franchises and another two were shut down for the rest of the preseason.
With that in mind, we can review what they’ve done to see where they’re at early in their careers.
Because there were six quarterbacks drafted in the first round this year – an NFL record – we have a shocking number of players to review. If I had time, I’d review every rookie with at least 15 dropbacks, but six quarterbacks is quite enough. Joe Milton will have to wait for another time.
One thing to keep in mind is that results aren’t the point of the preseason, especially if they come against backups, with backups. Instead, we need to look at process to determine whether or not someone’s play is repeatable. We don’t want to fall for Kyle Sloter’s incredible preseason or the fact that Sage Rosenfels has the best career preseason passer rating in NFL history.
Kenny Pickett had wonderful preseason stats his rookie year while having a worrisome process – one that presaged the struggles to come. C.J. Stroud had awful preseason statistics, but his process was better than his critics gave him credit for.
To get around to (more) correct conclusions, we need to be less attentive to these outcome-specific statistics while still acknowledging where they can help us learn something.
There are a number of quarterback analysts whose work I respect and highly recommend, too. JT O’Sullivan at the QB School is worth subscribing to at YouTube and on his Patreon. Nate Tice at Yahoo! Sports just broke down the rookie class as well on his podcast, Football 301. Derrik Klassen is the new voice on the Athletic Football Show, and that’s worth digging into as well.
This was a great preseason for rookie quarterbacks; we’ve seen many preseasons where first-round passers performed far worse than any of the members of the class discussed below. So the worst grade this year is a C, which is meant to signify an average first-round rookie quarterback performance.
Pick No. 1: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears
It is difficult to watch Caleb Williams film in the preseason and not be amazed at the things he’s doing. That’s not to say his highlights tell us he’ll be good, but rather that the skill ceiling will be high.
Williams’ preseason film does leave a little bit to be desired, but there are a lot of small skills he demonstrates that tell us that his volatile style of play has a good chance of translating.
Williams has fantastic pocket awareness and that’s something that’s a bit difficult to glean from the time-to-throw or pressure statistics. He can sense where bodies are in the pocket and what time he has left before he has to bail. And his escapability from the pocket is phenomenal.
His arm strength has been on full display as well, and he made some outstanding throws showing it off. In the play screenshot below, Williams drives a ball into a shallower window for a first down rather than take the open flats. This requires good drive on the ball and quick decision-making.
Williams’ improvisational abilities are through the roof, of course. That’s been his calling card and one issue with evaluating him has been the overemphasis on this trait. I don’t want to fall into that trap, but we’d be remiss not to at least discuss it.
Though much of Williams’ regard as a magician comes from scramble drills, not all improvisation happens when the pocket is moving and the receivers are scrambling. His ability to change his arm slot on this broken screen – one screwed up by the back for not getting deep enough – is outstanding, and I genuinely do not care how many times people complain that it’s “just a screen.”
And on top of that, his ability to craft explosives is mind-numbing. Like, my word.
What makes Williams exciting is not just that he can pull off maddening improvisation or generate big plays on the move with his arm – that’s a key component, but not the reason the NFC North should be worried by itself – it’s that he can win inside of structure and do a number of little things well.
His capacity for ball placement is excellent, the ball velocity is well-modulated for the situation, and his general sense of the field – both of his players and of opponents – is ideal. His footwork marries well with the play and creates high-level accuracy.
There are definitely concerns with his game that could tank his rookie season. He’s certainly not as quick to go through progressions after the snap as some of the high-level processors in the NFL. While his ability to recognize defenses post-snap is good, his capacity to go through his reads to find the open player isn’t at that same ability.
When there’s a lot of space, he seemingly gets lazy with placement, not always putting the ball where he needs to in order to maximize the chances of success. In narrow windows, this problem disappears entirely, so this seems not to be an ability issue than a willingness issue.
In the play below, Williams throws a route vertical when he should continue to follow the line of the post, leading a receiver against his own momentum – decreasing the likelihood of a pick, but also of a catch.
He uses his arm to make up for small deficiencies and probably should have been marked with a turnover-worthy play by charting groups like PFF on one of his early throws in the preseason. He has made up for it with the propensity to create plays that were previously lost, so it’s not damning – but it remains a concern.
The Bears are helping him out with a reliance on the boot action game, too. He’s great throwing on the run, but teams can adapt to this tendency and shut it down – we’ve seen boot quarterbacks demolished when the offense is overreliant on this action, one that cuts the field and half and exposes the quarterback to a hit from a smart edge defender.
His anticipation is good thus far but not great. His timing gets the ball out as receivers are breaking and his arm strength makes up the difference, but if he can speed up just a little bit, the offense will be deadly. That’s true for most of his throws, but there are also moments when he throws too quickly – he’s simply not dialed down into the correct timing on a lot of plays.
It’s understandable why Williams drew comparisons to Patrick Mahomes. But that’s not quite fair. Both are great in and out of structure and can throw on the run.
But while Williams has high-level improvisational ability and on-the-run throwing ability, Mahomes is other-worldly in these respects. Williams thinks he can throw across his body on the run, Mahomes knows he can. That difference is big.
Still, the stylistic comparisons are there and worth raising an eyebrow over.
Grade: A-
Pick No. 2: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
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