Alex Katson's 2025 NFL Mock Draft
A draft class with talent concentrated in non-traditional positions could lead to some early chaos in Green Bay this Thursday.
This draft class is weird.
Not bad, but weird. The quarterbacks are weaker than normal, but because the NFL is a quarterback-driven league, rumors have spun out of control about three passers going in the first round despite obvious flaws. The wide receivers are weaker than normal, including one guy whose 40 yard dash time is such a deviation from his on-field and analytical profile that there are people doing Zaprudian analysis on whether or not the NFL juiced his time.
Meanwhile, the positions that are good are ones that the league traditionally doesn’t value. It’s the best running back class in at least a decade. The tight end class is still a strength even if it’s become overrated in the last month or so. Upwards of 15 defensive tackles could realistically become legit contributors.
Combine all that with a lack of obvious talent at the top of the board, and things are shaping up for a profoundly weird night on Thursday at Lambeau Stadium.
I am the least confident in this predictive mock I have ever been, including 2019 when I did a mock draft in my apartment that was never published and was based solely on YouTube cutups my roommates and I watched. But here’s my best guess.
1.1 Tennessee Titans: Miami QB Cam Ward
Ward is on Fortnite streams saying his top running backs in the league are Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears and that Calvin Ridley and Treylon Burks are top five receivers. This has been a done deal for a while.
1.2 Cleveland Browns: Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter
With the whole world knowing that Tennessee is taking Ward, there’s nobody stopping Browns GM Andrew Berry from comparing Hunter to Shohei Ohtani in recent interviews. While I have Hunter graded as primarily a corner, Cleveland is one of the few exceptions where I think he’ll mostly play wide receiver, at least early on. But with Denzel Ward and Martin Emerson subject to injuries at any moment and Greg Newsome probably still fighting George Pickens in the stadium tunnel, there’s a pretty clear path to reps at corner as well.
1.3 New York Giants: Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter
To me, the draft starts with this pick. Not because the Giants could take anybody at this spot - most people have them taking Carter here. There’s still a slim chance, though, that Giants owner John Mara puts his thumb on the scale and makes the organization take Shedeur Sanders to give them a true heir apparent at quarterback.
Ultimately, it seems more likely that Mara can be convinced to wait another year, when he can pick from what looks to be a stronger 2026 quarterback crop (famous last words) with a new head coach and GM. Carter is an awkward fit with Brian Burns and Kayvon Thibodeaux, but you can’t let Thibodeaux’s draft pedigree outweigh his underwhelming production when served one of the only blue-chip players in the draft as an alternative.
1.4 New England Patriots: LSU OT Will Campbell
I know people want to move Campbell to guard because of his arm length, but are we sure he can do that? His stance at tackle is so upright because of the way he’s built, and that’s not a viable setup on the inside. I think most teams will have Campbell graded as a tackle as a result, and if they do, he should be the first one off the board. New England will be sick to miss out on Hunter and Carter, but their current starter at left tackle is Vederian Lowe or Caedan Wallace.
1.5 Chicago Bears (via JAX): Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty
This makes sense for all the big reasons: running backs are an important part of Ben Johnson’s offense. Ashton Jeanty is good. Chicago, who has drafted a first and second rounder based on their 30 visits each of the last three seasons, had Jeanty in for a visit. But why trade up?
Well, Jacksonville has been leaking their own interest in Jeanty, the first concrete thing we’d heard out of James Gladstone and Liam Coen’s operation since they were hired. That always felt like smoke to drive up the price. With Las Vegas looming at 6, there’s even more reason to drift upwards. Bears GM Ryan Poles also loves to trade picks. On Tuesday, I heard that this deal was somewhere between “heavy discussion” and “ready to be sent in as long as Jeanty is on the board”. That stove cooled down on Wednesday, but nobody seems quite sure what Jacksonville’s plans are.
1.6 Las Vegas Raiders: Missouri OT Armand Membou
With Jeanty gone, some people may assume that Michigan men John Spytek and Tom Brady would aim for Michigan man Mason Graham to beef up the defensive line. That’s an awkward fit with Christian Wilkins, though, and as more information has come out early this week, it sounds like offensive linemen are going to be flying off the shelves.
Vegas is in a prime position to grab their favorite after the Patriots presumably take one at no. 4, and the cupboard may be empty by the time they come up again at 37. Kolton Miller wants a new deal and DJ Glaze struggled on the right side as a rookie. Membou can potentially solve either problem.
1.7 New York Jets: Penn State TE Tyler Warren
New York would take Warren over Membou if both were available at this spot, in my opinion. With Membou off the board a pick earlier, Michigan's Mason Graham could be tempting, but everything I've heard about the Jets suggests they're going to build up the offensive side of the ball first. Warren is as clean as they come character-wise and it’d shock me to see him fall below 10 at the absolute latest.
1.8 Carolina Panthers: Georgia EDGE/LB Jalon Walker
Walker is personally a bit lower than this for me, but Carolina seems deadset on taking him with this pick unless Dan Morgan is the best liar of all time. With Jadeveon Clowney and DJ Wonnum set to hit free agency after the season and Carolina continuing to overhaul their culture under Morgan and Dave Canales, Walker could step in off the edge and give Carolina a bit more versatility as a dropper in coverage.
1.9 New Orleans Saints: Texas OT Kelvin Banks Jr.
It sure sounds like New Orleans wants to focus on the trenches, and it sure sounds like the media has yet to find Banks’ hypothetical draft ceiling if the insiders are to be trusted. Left guard Nick Saldiveri is a brutal player and right tackle Trevor Penning got better last season, but that’s a low bar to clear. Banks can play guard for a season before Penning hits free agency (I doubt the Saints pick up his option), and then New Orleans can figure out which side Banks and Taliese Fuaga are best at long-term.
For a team addicted to not rebuilding, this seems like an ideal scenario. You still get a first-year starter while also taking just the tiniest bit of your medicine and giving you a young tackle duo to approach the future with.
1.10 Jacksonville Jaguars (via CHI): Michigan IDL Mason Graham
Well, if this is how things shake out for Jacksonville, why wouldn’t you move down a few spots? Gladstone doesn’t seem like the type to try to win headlines, but accumulating future capital while picking up the player everyone had pegged as your selection at no. 5 would undoubtedly have people buzzing about the boy genius heading the new-look Jags.
Graham is a great, if flawed, player. His lack of length and mass have been pointed out repeatedly as he’s gone through the draft process. Of all the top ten prospects, it feels most likely he’s the one to be waiting a touch longer than everyone else.
1.11 San Francisco 49ers: Georgia EDGE Mykel Williams
Monday’s reporting was near-unanimous in scolding the media for being lower on Williams than the league is. That left me no choice but to move him up from Atlanta at 15 to place him in San Francisco, where he would be an immediate upgrade over Yetur Gross-Matos and Drake Jackson. A rock-solid run defender still recovering from an injury that kept him from testing at his best, Williams would be the first step in a much-needed overhaul on the Niners’ defensive line.
1.12 Dallas Cowboys: Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan
I’d like to find a spot higher than this for McMillan based on my personal evaluation, but it’s difficult to do so when you read between the lines. Jacksonville’s reported interest seems overstated, Vegas will probably have issues with the football character, and New Orleans seems committed to the trenches (classic Mickey).
Dallas has become a Draft Twitter wide receiver graveyard, with Jalen Tolbert and Jonathan Mingo currently leading a pack behind CeeDee Lamb that also includes Twitter darlings Kelvin Harmon, Seth Williams, and Jalen Cropper. None of those are functional NFL players at the same level as McMillan, who could interchange with Lamb in and out of the slot to allow the Cowboys to work matchups.
1.13 Miami Dolphins: Texas CB Jahdae Barron
When Rickey tweeted that Miami would be trading an All-Pro only a few days after Tyreek Hill was arrested (again), the odds of the Dolphins taking a wide receiver shot to the top of the list. But it turns out that Jalen Ramsey, not Hill (for now), is the one on the block. If Ramsey gets moved, Barron makes the most sense as a one-to-one replacement as an apex defender in Anthony Weaver’s defense.
Even independent of Ramsey’s trade, Miami’s corner situation isn’t great. Cam Smith hasn’t developed and the two main backups on the outside are allegedly Storm Duck and Ethan Bonner. I could see owner and noted Michigan man Stephen Ross pushing for Will Johnson instead, but the intel seems to suggest Johnson won’t go this high.
1.14 Indianapolis Colts: Michigan TE Colston Loveland
Loveland started to fall towards the 20s right as the national pundits insisted that he was going to go high, with the TE1 campaign over Warren starting back up for good measure. Indianapolis is the most obvious answer closer to the top as long as Chris Ballard is comfortable with Loveland’s shoulder injury, which could keep him out for part or all of his first offseason in the league.
Look at the other tight ends on Indy’s roster. Drew Ogletree followed up a domestic violence arrest with a 9-reception season in 2024. Mo Alie-Cox wasn’t re-signed until April 11. Jelani Woods hasn’t played an NFL game since 2022. Will Mallory had 4 receptions last season. Let’s be serious.
1.15 Atlanta Falcons: Texas A&M EDGE Shemar Stewart
Atlanta is not typically fond of taking players with character flags, and while I’ve heard they’re comfortable with Mike Green’s situation, I think that the Falcons would lean towards the cleaner character if presented with two players of roughly similar caliber.
Stewart is arguably the biggest boom-or-bust prospect in the draft. We’ve all seen the discourse about his sack numbers (or lack thereof). But as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah mentioned recently, teams are slowly trending towards looking at pressure numbers and win rates, where Stewart’s profile is much less of a historic outlier. In a scheme where he’s allowed to pin his ears back, rather than read and react in Texas A&M’s run defense-first front, his potential will probably be easier to reach.
1.16 Arizona Cardinals: Oregon IDL Derrick Harmon
Arizona seems like they’ll be the latest team to focus on the trenches, but offensive tackle is starting to dry up and the Cardinals at least have Jonah Williams coming back from a knee injury at right tackle for one more season. On the defensive line, a four-man group of Calais Campbell, Dalvin Tomlinson, Darius Robinson, and Justin Jones isn’t my least favorite group in the league.
Campbell turns 39 in September, though, and to expect to get any more than one season from him would be foolish. A long-term duo of Robinson at 5-tech and Harmon at 3-tech would give Arizona a fearsome interior pass rush with Josh Sweat on the outside to elevate one of the Cardinals’ biggest weaknesses from a season ago.
1.17 Cincinnati Bengals: Marshall EDGE Mike Green
Cincinnati has pretty consistently been the team thrown around as the most comfortable with the Green situation, which makes sense from a couple different angles. Green has been pretty up-front about the whole thing, which the Bengals probably appreciate after Jermaine Burton forgot to tell them that he wasn’t paying rent on his apartment. Cincinnati is also not typically a super strict character organization. (See the earlier thing about Burton.)
The Bengals also need a pass rusher, or really just anybody that can play defense, bad enough that you could argue that they can’t afford to care about a case that some people would dismiss as circumstantial. Teams have been split on how serious they think Green’s allegations are, as both came at previous stops and did not lead to charges. On the field, he’s a dynamic pass rusher who would give Cincinnati a much-needed boost after missing on Joseph Ossai and Myles Murphy to date.
1.18 Seattle Seahawks: Michigan CB Will Johnson
John Schneider thinks that offensive linemen should be paid the federal minimum wage, especially if they play on the interior. For that reason, I’m abstaining from a high pick on someone like North Dakota State’s Grey Zabel, who most people have linked to Seattle in this spot.
Are you telling me that Josh Jobe is going to start on the outside for the Seahawks this season next to Riq Woolen and Devon Witherspoon? Like, actually? This feels like a perfect spot to stop Johnson’s slide because of a knee injury and refusal to run the 40 at his private workout.
1.19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kentucky CB Maxwell Hairston
Hairston is slighter than Tampa usually likes their corners, but sources have relayed that the Kentucky corner blew the Bucs away on his 30 visit at the end of the cycle. Alabama linebacker Jihaad Campbell has been the other player heavily linked here, but medical issues are threatening to push him out of the first round.
Either way, Tampa’s priority has fairly clearly been to upgrade their coverage ability. While Hairston may be considered a reach at this spot, multiple teams have said publicly that the differences between the 10th pick and 50th pick are lower than they’ve been in some time. If you love a guy, why not just take him?
1.20 Denver Broncos: Ohio State RB TreVeyon Henderson
Flip a coin between Henderson and North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton, but I’d be a coward if I didn’t take a swing here. Local reporting in Denver is asserting that the Broncos see Henderson as the closest thing to Alvin Kamara in this class. It’s almost too obvious to connect the dot between that and Sean Payton being the coach in Denver.
I do think this pick is a running back, regardless. The rumors about Denver trading up seem to be more about knowing the price, something that George Paton has always been a proponent of doing whether they seriously plan on making a move or not. A trade back for a team in the early portions of round two looking to get back in front of Pittsburgh feels much more likely.
1.21 Pittsburgh Steelers: Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders
The offseason quarterback carousel has not really gone Pittsburgh’s way. At the Combine, I heard that the Steelers wanted to retain Russell Wilson while stockpiling assets for a big move at the top of the 2026 draft. When Wilson went to New York, Pittsburgh pivoted to Aaron Rodgers. With Rodgers still milking the moment before signing, the Steelers are somewhat in purgatory entering Thursday.
GM Omar Khan stressed Tuesday that Pittsburgh will enter training camp with four quarterbacks. They currently have two: Mason Rudolph and Skylar Thompson. Assuming Rodgers eventually signs, Pittsburgh still doesn’t have a future option on the roster. Sanders would give them that without needing to maneuver around the board, something the Steelers are historically against.
1.22 Los Angeles Chargers: Michigan IDL Kenneth Grant
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh called Grant a “gift from the football gods” when he committed to Harbaugh at Michigan. Los Angeles has nearly exclusively signed free agents with strong Harbaugh connections - Najee Harris and Mekhi Becton were two of Harbaugh’s most bitter recruiting losses and Benjamin St-Juste transferred out of the Michigan program before blossoming at Minnesota.
LA also let Poona Ford move across town to the Rams and signed only depth pieces in response. Teair Tart, Naquan Jones, and Da’Shawn Hand are not enough to recreate Ford in the aggregate. If Grant, who has repeatedly said that reuniting with Harbaugh, defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, and defensive line coach Mike Elston would be a dream, is available at 22, he’ll almost certainly be the pick.
1.23 Green Bay Packers: Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka
In a draft where every other player seems to have either a character or injury concern, I have a hard time seeing Egbuka - clean on both counts - getting out of the first round. The more I searched for that spot, the more I landed on Green Bay, where the Packers have five WR2s who are all boxed in to a rather specific role.
That’s a weird way for a room to be constructed for a Shanahan-inspired squad, and Egbuka would give them some more creative freedom. He meets Green Bay’s notoriously strict thresholds as a slot receiver, but his ability to move around even a little bit would open up some of the things the Packers would be able to do offensively.
1.24 Kansas City Chiefs (via MIN): Ohio State OT Josh Simmons
Minnesota is the most obvious trade-back candidate as things start to get messy at the back of the round. The Vikings only have four picks this year and don’t need an offensive tackle or wide receiver, the two premier spots likely to be available at this spot. Kansas City, meanwhile, has outs in the Jaylon Moore and Jawaan Taylor contracts after this season.
Simmons may need a redshirt this year as he recovers from a torn patellar tendon, but there’s few teams as capable as Kansas City of giving him that time. The Chiefs don’t need immediate contributors anywhere except defensive tackle, where Chris Jones and Mike Pennel are the only ones under contract. In such a deep class, however, they can throw that dart later on and nab a future starter at tackle.
1.25 Houston Texans: Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr.
Houston breathes a sigh of relief here as they land the last of the high-end tackle prospects. In the real thing, the Texans probably see Banks come off the board at 9 and start to sweat, and I could see a move coming from the trade-happy Nick Caserio to ensure that his squad doesn’t miss out on Conerly, who doesn’t have the same football character questions as someone like Simmons.
The Texans’ offensive line is a mess. Trusting Cam Robinson as a starting left tackle in 2025 seems like a losing proposition. Blake Fisher had a rough season on the right side. Tytus Howard was getting shredded in the playoff win over Los Angeles. There’s a place for Conerly to fit in somewhere in there, most plausibly at left tackle long-term.
1.26 Los Angeles Rams: Texas WR Matthew Golden
I don’t doubt that some teams have Golden over McMillan, given the latter’s question marks surrounding his character that have cropped up. But finding a spot for the Texas receiver is trickier than it looks. He doesn’t fit Green Bay’s thresholds, and the weird discrepancy between his 40 time and his game speed makes for a strange evaluation of his value. In that sense, he may be the most emblematic player of the class as a whole.
The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue reported Tuesday that LA will likely turn to the offensive side of the ball with their first pick, in which case a receiver makes some sense if all of the tackle types are off the board. Davante Adams gives the Rams a legit threat next to Puka Nacua in 2025, but Golden can eat into Tutu Atwell’s reps as a field stretcher at the very least.
1.27 Baltimore Ravens: Georgia S Malaki Starks
Death, taxes, and the Ravens letting the board come to them. The NFL continues to treat safeties as if they are not real people, which I think will push Starks down the board a bit despite his fantastic talent. For the sake of comparison, consider whether or not you think Starks is a better prospect than Brian Branch was. Branch went 45th in a draft class that was way less weird than this one.
Ar’Darius Washington is a fun player, but starting him all season next to Kyle Hamilton as the primary two safeties just doesn’t seem feasible. Washington is also playing the 2025 season on the RFA tender and could leave for more money in 2026. Starks can kick down into the nickel or play box or post safety, which would give Baltimore one of the most versatile safety tandems in the league to terrorize their AFC rivals with.
1.28 Detroit Lions: North Dakota State G Grey Zabel
Detroit is another team that typically drafts their first rounders based on their visit schedule. Zabel took a 30 visit to the Lions earlier in the cycle and is viewed as potentially the top center in the class, which is an important note for a Detroit squad who is on retirement watch with Frank Ragnow.
Before Ragnow calls it a career, Zabel can compete with Christian Mahogany for the right guard spot or threaten to replace veteran Graham Glasgow, who had a down 2024 season. Detroit’s interior depth isn’t particularly impressive right now, so adding Zabel to keep a vital unit replenished makes some sense.
1.29 Washington Commanders: Boston College EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku
Heading into the draft, Washington is planning to have you suit up opposite Dorance Armstrong to rush the passer. Are you ready to face Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson twice this season? Are you willing to give those snaps to Clelin Ferrell or Deatrich Wise?
You get the idea. Ezeiruaku is a bit compact, but he’s a fiery player off the edge whose phenomenal 2024 season has pushed him into the first round conversation as others tumble due to character concerns.
1.30 Buffalo Bills: Alabama LB Jihaad Campbell
I mentioned medical issues for Campbell when discussing the Bucs pick. Both shoulders and his knee have been flagged by at least one team, with sources saying that it could be drastic enough to drop the Alabama linebacker out of the first round entirely. I’m not willing to go that far because Campbell is a potentially scheme-altering player when healthy, and his current issues are clearing up enough that we got some videos of him running on Tuesday. (Always a good sign when you have to post videos of yourself running two days before the draft, by the way.)
Terrel Bernard has developed into a player I don’t think many imagined in Buffalo, but Matt Milano’s time in uniform seems to be dwindling. Dorian Williams hasn’t taken that step yet, either. Buffalo can’t really afford to wait for those players to figure it out with a Super Bowl window wide open, and I think they’d care less about potentially degenerative concerns regarding Campbell for much the same reason.
Also, Jihaad with Sean McDermott. Come on.
1.31 Minnesota Vikings (via KC): South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori
Brian Flores is one of the only people in the league I would trust to turn Emmanwori into an actual first-round caliber player. The South Carolina safety has an insane bundle of tools - he’s literally the most athletic safety prospect ever according to RAS - but putting them together in a way that makes sense for his gigantic frame proved to be a difficult task for the Gamecocks. He’s really more of a coverage safety at this stage because his eyes in the run game are pretty slow, so he doesn’t leverage his ability to drive on plays and erase things as often as he should.
Minnesota could teach him how to do it. I believe in them. They love turning weird defensive backs into legit players. Josh Metellus got a 2 year, $8 million extension because of that. He’s a free agent after the season, by the way. So is 36-year-old Harrison Smith, who can’t live forever.
1.32 Philadelphia Eagles: Mississippi IDL Walter Nolen
Nolen’s character issues are a little murky, but everyone will tell you there’s something going on there, which is why I have him falling here. Some sources have said that there’s a lot going on there and think he could plummet lower than this. Some think that a team with a stable of solid veterans and a strong locker room culture could coax the right outputs from him, which has left some people confident enough to mock him as high as 11 to San Francisco or 17 to Cincinnati.
You know who has the strongest locker room in the league, though?
That’s right. Big Dom, baby. The Eagles love doing this. With Milton Williams taking the bag in free agency, Philadelphia is also set to start Moro Ojomo on the line with Jordan Davis and Jalen Carter. I simply don’t believe that.