Alex Katson's Final 2026 NFL Mock Draft: A Bleary-Eyed, Sleep-Deprived Attempt at Predicting the Future
Alex Katson gathered data from local reporting, independent sourcing and GM tendencies to produce his official prediction for the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft
It is 1am on Wednesday morning, and I have just completed making the picks for my only mock draft of the cycle after three hours of manic research that has overwritten a fair amount of my eight months of slightly less manic theorizing.
It is now 11am on Wednesday morning. I fell asleep writing the blurbs for these picks, and naturally, I have been exposed to even more information that forced me to change a handful of picks.
But, considering I tied for 65th of 174 mock drafts submitted to The Huddle Report in 2025, my first year invited to the competition, such a cram session was necessary to inform some of the bigger swings I’ve taken in this mock.
If I look stupid on Thursday, that’s cool with me. It’s part of the fun of the cycle — which is important, because the lack of obvious top-end talent in this draft has mostly resulted in it feeling like the longest year of most analysts’ lives. But given most mock drafts are exercises in educated guessing anyhow, I feel as confident as one can feel roughly 30 hours before the draft begins on Thursday.
Note that all trades are based on the Rich Hill chart, which is what the mock draft simulator operated by Underdog uses.
Here are the picks.
1.1 Las Vegas Raiders: Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza
Thank you to the Raiders, Mendoza, and Tom Brady for making this by far the easiest selection of the night. Mendoza was really only challenged for QB1 by Oregon’s Dante Moore, who decided to head back to school and try his luck in 2027. Las Vegas will milk the new 8-minute timer, because the NFL tells them to, so don’t worry if you show up to your buddy’s draft party 10-15 minutes late on Thursday.
1.2 New York Jets: Ohio State EDGE Arvell Reese
Basically everyone on the national insider circuit has hammered David Bailey as the pick here under the pretense that Bailey is a safer player for a head coach that is surely on the hot seat after a disastrous first season. But almost every local reporter has remained steadfast that the pick is Reese, who does not have the low floor people seem to be making him out to have. It’s worth noting that the national media struggled to pin GM Darren Mougey down this time last year: most national reporters had the Jets selecting Tyler Warren rather than Armand Membou a season ago.
1.3 Arizona Cardinals: Texas Tech EDGE David Bailey
Rumors of a trade here have been centered around the Saints at 8 and Chiefs at 9, and I do believe that Arizona would love to trade out of this pick and collect an offensive lineman at more commensurate value a bit later. But Jeff Duncan of Nola.com, one of the Saints’ preeminent reporters, has said that a trade up seems unlikely. Sources connected to the Chiefs have suggested that a trade to 3 would be for Reese if the Jets select Bailey. I’m willing to buy that owner Michael Bidwill wants to take Jeremiyah Love to put butts in seats, but GM Monti Ossenfort has drafted a premium position with all 7 top 50 picks during his tenure with the Cardinals. Bailey is on the older side of those 7 players at 22.65 years old, but with no trade materializing here, I think Arizona would rather take Bailey than reach for Miami offensive lineman Francis Mauigoa or swerve off tendency and take Love.
1.4 Tennessee Titans: Notre Dame RB Jeremiyah Love
Tennessee seems to be hoping and praying that Arizona will take Love so that they can have whichever defensive player falls to 4. Recent smoke about Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles and receiver Carnell Tate feel like complicating the picture for the sake of doing so more than legitimate interest. Getting what some see as the best player in the draft at a position that moves uniforms when you just did a brand refresh will surely be appealing to all parties involved in Nashville.
1.5 New York Giants: Ohio State LB Sonny Styles
The Athletic beat reporter Dan Duggan has gotten 3 of the Giants’ first 4 picks correct in back-to-back years and has stayed on Styles despite recent movement towards his teammate, safety Caleb Downs. GM Joe Schoen, who admittedly has a questionable amount of power remaining after the team hired John Harbaugh as head coach, gravitates more towards elite athletes in the first round and Downs is usually described as a good-not-great athlete. Styles, on the other hand, was the fourth-most athletic linebacker in the RAS database.
