Can We Predict the NFL Draft's First Overall Pick in the Summer?

Ben Glassmire looks at why it's getting increasingly difficult to predict the draft's first pick and who the contenders are this season.

Photo by Sam Hodde/Getty Images

Every year, when the NFL draft ends, analysts have the arduous and usually fruitless task of predicting who will be selected in the next year’s class and in what order.

Last year, no one would have predicted that former Miami Hurricane QB Cam Ward would become the first pick, which underscores how hard it is to accurately predict the first pick in “Way Too Early Mock Drafts” one year out.

This time last year, Ward was projected as a day-three pick after an up-and-down year at Washington State. However, he ended up becoming the unanimous first-overall pick well before the draft started. Though it was well-understood that Ward had all the tools to be a first-round pick, there was no guarantee he'd put it all together in his final season.

During the last few drafts, the first pick has seemingly oscillated between unexpected and one that felt like it was known for years.

In 2024, Caleb Williams was selected first overall after being anointed to that mantle a full season before he was even draft-eligible. In 2021, Trevor Lawrence was in a similar situation; he was assumed to be the first overall pick before even arriving at Clemson.

Other first overall picks were harder to see coming. Former LSU QB Joe Burrow was not even on draft radars before 2020, but ended up being a franchise-altering pick for the Bengals.

Quarterback is the most likely position to go first overall. Still, there have been players at other positions who have risen through the ranks or been selected first overall in early mock drafts.

In 2017, Myles Garrett became the last non-quarterback to be selected first overall who had significant summer support to do so. But even in Garrett’s year, players like Miami QB Brad Kaaya, LSU RB Leonard Fournette and the now-disgraced Clemson QB Deshaun Watson received some amount of pre-season hype for that spot.

What about when multiple quarterbacks are competing for the first overall pick, or when there is no standout quarterback? You can forget about predicting who will fill that spot.

In 2018, when Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen and Lamar Jackson were involved, the top pick was a complete and total crapshoot.

In 2022, with the dismal quarterback class that led to Kenny Pickett being the first quarterback selected, no one saw the rise of Travon Walker coming. It took a dominant season and dominant pre-draft process for Walker to lock that spot up, and even then, he was far from a consensus top prospect when you look at media mock drafts and big boards.

Why is it so hard to predict the first overall pick one year out?

It’s already challenging to get in the head of NFL decision-makers so far in advance of the draft, much less do that while projecting a player’s college trajectory. We all know a player’s final season is the most important to their draft stock, so trying to predict who will shine, disappoint or blossom in their final season is nearly impossible.

College football is an unpredictable and volatile sport as is. All it takes is a player getting into the right situation at the right time to vault up draft boards. That is especially prevalent when evaluating quarterbacks. A lot goes into playing quarterback at the college level, and the transition from high school to college can take longer for some players.