Does Guaranteed Money Tell Us Anything About UDFAs?

We have the guaranteed money numbers for all of the undrafted free agents. Can we use those to predict which UDFAs make rosters?

Kansas City Chiefs linebacker Curtis Jacobs from Penn State has the highest odds of any UDFA to make a roster. Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images

Every year, the NFL brings in about 500 undrafted free agent rookies into training camp. About 50 of them make the roster the week prior to the NFL season. Even fewer make it to Week 1 as teams sign veterans to fill out the roster.

That ten percent make rate is, unsurprisingly, lower than that for late-round picks. Nevertheless, it’s higher than many people expect – and that doesn’t include the UDFAs who make the practice squad only to make the roster years later.

Many undrafted free agents end up as starters, of course – we’re all familiar with stories like Kurt Warner, James Harrison, Adam Thielen and Tony Romo – but a lot of their value comes in the form of rotational play and special teams capability.

Valuable special teamers like Brenden Schooler, Jeremy Reaves, Cethan Carter and George Odum have all come from the undrafted ranks as have rotational players like Keaton Mitchell, Tyrel Dodson, Andrew Wingard, Carl Granderson, Jaylen Warren, Jake Bobo, Trent Sherfield and Tanner Hudson.

And starters like Ivan Pace Jr., Terence Steele, Tashaun Gipson, Jake Brendel, Charvarius Ward and Raheem Mostert had to find their teams after the draft – it’s not just stars like Austin Ekeler.

Can we predict which undrafted free agents are most likely to make the roster and impact their teams?

In some sense, of course not – after all, if it was obvious, those players would have been drafted. Nevertheless, we’ve received some clues that could allow us to identify the players with the best odds.

Using Guaranteed Money and Consensus Rank to Understand UDFAs

Guaranteed money numbers have been updated and published by both OverTheCap and Spotrac, giving us access to knowledge about the undrafted rookies who seem to have been held in the highest regard by NFL teams this year.

We can combine that with the Consensus Big Board to get a better sense of how likely undrafted rookies are to make an impact in the NFL.

For that, I used data going back to 2021 to determine whether or not guaranteed money (and Consensus Big Board rank) held clues into who might make the roster. I decided not to use data from 2020 and prior in part because the COVID-19 pandemic impacted NFL roster-making to such a heavy degree that undrafted rookies saw their lowest signing rate in years and because there has been an upward trend in guaranteed money heading towards UDFAs – making less recent data less reliable.

The pandemic still impacted the 2021 season because it was perhaps the second-shallowest draft pool in a long time, only better than the 2020 season. Only 300 or so UDFAs signed that year as players opted to use their COVID exemption to stay an extra year in college.

Nevertheless, this gives us some data to work with to help model roster likelihood.

There’s a high correlation between rank and guaranteed money – many of the players held in high regard also had a good enough market to command some concessions from teams. But sometimes, we get conflicting information.

Which Matters More? Money or Rank?

For example, Kaevon Merriweather only received $15,000 in guaranteed money when he signed with the Buccaneers – tied for 192nd among the undrafted free agents we have data for. However, he was the 22nd-ranked undrafted free agent by the Consensus Big Board. Given that he made the Buccaneers initial 53-man roster, one could call this a “win” for the board.

On the other hand, the highly-ranked Emil Ekiyor Jr. didn’t make the Indianapolis Colts roster or their practice squad in 2022. He was the third-highest ranked undrafted free agent in the class but didn’t draw much of a market, only getting $5,000 – ranking 276th among undrafted free agents. The guaranteed money provided a pretty significant signal there.

Of course, players with no guaranteed money or acclaim by the Consensus Big Board made teams. Markees Watts only earned $1,000 in guaranteed money from the Buccaneers and was unranked by the board.

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

He nevertheless made the Buccaneers roster after a great preseason. Anthony Kendall and NaJee Thompson received no guaranteed money and hadn’t garnered the attention of third-party draft analysts. They both made their teams.

There will always be a chance for players without guaranteed money or third-party acclaim to make the roster – that’s why they hold training camp and play in the preseason games. Many of the players who don’t make the initial 53-man team will make the practice squad for their original signing team or even make the rosters of other teams.

It’s important to understand that this is only measured against the team that initially signed the undrafted free agent. That means that Emanuel Wilson does not count as a “hit” because he initially signed with the Denver Broncos before signing with the Packers – even though he was only on the Broncos roster for three days.

There are other limitations as well. This only measures the first year that an undrafted free agent has an opportunity to make the roster. Adam Thielen is a good example of a starting-quality player who didn’t make the roster his rookie year, instead spending 2013 on the practice squad before rising up the ranks.

Because we’re focused on college free agents in their first year of NFL eligibility, we’ll also have to ignore players like Dee Alford, who did not sign with a team coming out of college. Alford instead played in the CFL for two years before signing with the Atlanta Falcons and playing a key role as a defensive back.

When accounting for the high correlation between Consensus Big Board rank and guaranteed money (a correlation of -0.48) one can construct a simple model that projects likelihood for undrafted free agents. The base make rate is about nine percent, and a higher consensus board rank and/or a higher guaranteed salary have an equal chance of helping or hurting those odds in the model, from a maximum of 33 percent to a minimum of 4 percent.

The highest odds over the past three years belonged to Andre Carter II, Carson Strong, Sammis Reyes, Ivan Pace Jr., Lonnie Phelps, Marvin Wilson, Mario Goordich, Rakim Jarrett, Abram Smith, Bruce Ford-Wheaton, Kennedy Brooks, Kevin Austin Jr., Ronnie Hickman, McClendon Curtis and Jason Brownlee.