Justin Jefferson Injury: What We Can Learn From The Coverage

The Vikings announced Justin Jefferson was to go on injured reserve. How the media covered it tells us what range of options are available to Minnesota.

Photo by Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images

Yesterday, the Vikings announced that Justin Jefferson would be put on injured reserve after suffering a hamstring injury late against the Kansas City Chiefs. How the press corps responded to the news gives us a good read on the team in general and on the severity of Jefferson’s injury.

There have essentially been three strains of questions posed by Vikings media: 1) How can the Vikings replace Jefferson in the offense? 2) Will Jefferson return from IR sooner rather than later? 3) Is it over?

And related to that final question is another: 3a) If it’s over, do they trade Kirk Cousins?

Let’s take a look at it.

How Can the Vikings Replace Jefferson?

In one sense, the Vikings clearly cannot replace Jefferson. As Will Ragatz pointed out last year, Jefferson’s impact on the offense is nearly as large as a starting quality, low-level quarterback, which is unique for a receiver. His PFF Wins Above Replacement – a measure of how many wins above replacement a player contributes – has been higher than nearly any other non-quarterback in the league at 0.71 for the 2023 season.

That might seem low, but the dominance of quarterbacks and the large number of football players involved in any game depress that number for any elite non-quarterback. If each game contains about half a win for an entire football team and an average starting quarterback constitutes about 0.08 of that half-win, then the other 25 players who can make an impact the game will contribute, on average, 0.017 wins.

That tells us that Jefferson is 2.5 times more valuable than the average football player in Wins Above Replacement. In that context, it makes even if it likely is still a bit lower than I’d estimate.

Justin Jefferson runs every route. Source: NFL Next Gen Stats

Either way, that makes replacing him tough. Alec Lewis at the Athletic estimates that K.J. Osborn will “replace” Jefferson in the offense, essentially meaning that he’ll be tasked with running routes from the same positions as Jefferson but won’t take on the same role in the offense.

That means he’ll be lined up on the line of scrimmage with the responsibility of taking on press coverage while players like Jordan Addison can still take advantage of the off-the-line status of flankers and slot receivers to dial up deep shots.

In all likelihood, T.J. Hockenson will likely see his route depth change to accommodate the fact that he can no longer act as an underneath outlet to pull coverage away from Jefferson. Instead, he will have to play a more primary role in the offense, which would mean taking advantage of his athletic talent.

There’s also some chance that the Vikings play with their two tight ends more often, with Josh Oliver expanding his role to include more pass-catching. While that has been a frustrating experience so far, he has demonstrated that base skill set and has the athleticism to be effective in that capacity.

Those two will play a big role in redesigning the offense for the next few weeks without Jefferson available, but the burden might ultimately fall on Addison to produce big plays.

As Dane Mizutani at the Pioneer Press points out, it won’t be as simple as redistributing targets among the available pass catchers. Jefferson had such gravity that it altered coverage and opened space for other receivers. Without that effect, it will be tough to find space. The passing efficiency will naturally suffer even as the Vikings find a way to make do.

How Long Will Justin Jefferson Be Out?