Learning Everything We Can About J.J. McCarthy's Projections

The Vikings may have secured their quarterback of the future. With more information on prospects than ever before, what can we learn about McCarthy from draft analysts, NFL scouts and analytics?

Photo by Mike Mulholland/Getty Images

With the tenth pick in the NFL draft, the Minnesota Vikings drafted J.J. McCarthy. With the state of the NFL draft, we have access to swaths of information on each prospect, particularly quarterbacks and particularly particularly quarterbacks expected to go in the first round. What happens when we gather all the information we can – scouting reports from outside evaluators, NFL scouts and statistical breakdowns – on the player?

For a film-based breakdown on the deep-ball question, check out this piece from Luke Braun on J.J. McCarthy and his deep passing game. Braun will have a more thorough film breakdown on McCarthy coming down the pike, so this will just serve as a breakdown of the available information we have, including scouting reports and analytical data – meant to work part and parcel with the film review coming later.

What Do the Scouting Evaluations Say?

McCarthy was the 23rd-ranked prospect on the Consensus Big Board, meaning the Vikings “reached” about 13 slots when selecting him at tenth overall. For the purposes of draft grade and the internal logic that drives the Consensus Big Board, this isn’t a real reach in the way it would be for a receiver or cornerback.

At quarterback, these kinds of “reaches” are common. That has limits – the Falcons selection of Michael Penix Jr. is viewed by the board as one of the worst picks in the first round – but the Vikings’ selection of McCarthy, given their need profile and the draft capital typically afforded to quarterbacks is about even return for value.

More encouragingly, McCarthy was a volatile evaluation. While that might sound like a negative, the history of polarizing players tells us that “reaches” are much more justified against the Consensus Big Board when there are a wide range of draft evaluations on a player. This means there’s more uncertainty in the ranking than there is for someone like Cooper DeJean or Nate Wiggins, who were ranked one slot before and one slot after McCarthy.

Two of the most polarizing quarterbacks in the history of the Consensus Big Board were Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Not bad company to keep.

The highest ranking for McCarthy belonged to the Huddle Report’s Drew Boylhart, who gave McCarthy the highest grade in the entire draft. In his scouting report, he notes that McCarthy’s talent for winning comes from more than just playing on a talented team but his ability to elevate the team around him through communication, leadership and measured decision-making.

The second-highest grade came from FantasyPro’s Thor Nystrom, who ranked McCarthy third overall. He was effusive in his report.

One of the most encouraging aspects of McCarthy’s 2023 breakout season was his work under pressure, a problem area as a first-year starter in 2022. He has the lateral agility and acceleration to get out of sticky situations, and he’s comfortable ad-libbing. The improvisational aspect of McCarthy’s game could be special at the next level.

McCarthy is a smart, tough player. His toughness is a key part of his NFL evaluation. One of the rarest traits you see on quarterback film – college or NFL – is a quarterback who doesn’t fade away from hits or brace for them while throwing. McCarthy is a player who steps into his throw every time and eats the biggest possible hit to make the most accurate pass possible.

After sometimes struggling to move off his first read as a true sophomore in 2022, McCarthy’s 2023 tape showed a young prospect becoming increasingly comfortable moving to his second and third options. He still needs work in this area, but his improvement was encouraging.

McCarthy also has gotten very good at timing concepts, a key component in Jim Harbaugh’s pro-style system. He mercilessly attacks the middle of the field, a skill the NFL loves.

Hayden Winks at Underdog Fantasy also ranked McCarthy third overall. He elucidated his thoughts in a 20-minute video breaking down the prospect. He and co-host Josh Norris emphasized McCarthy’s excellence in third-down situations and in his ability to execute NFL concepts in rhythm.

Of course, not everyone was sold on McCarthy. Though he received one number one ranking and a few number three rankings, he also received rankings that placed him outside of the second round. 33rd team ranked him 77th overall. The scouting report is fairly scathing – as one might expect – and criticizes McCarthy as a spot thrower without anticipation that also happens to throw at one speed.

Courtesy 33rd Team, using Sports Info Solutions

They praised his athleticism and toughness, but harped on full-field progressions, and overall playmaking ability, especially with emphasis on intermediate accuracy. They concluded by saying:

McCarthy projects to be a circumstantial starting quarterback with the potential of developing into a “win-with” level quarterback. He will be best served to play in an offensive scheme that utilizes motions and play action to a high degree. While the flashes of playmaking ability stand out, the level of consistency in which McCarthy plays with must improve. He won’t be the most talented quarterback at the next level, but if he can improve his decision-making and ability to play with anticipation, he can raise his floor.

Among those who ranked McCarthy low was Tyler Forness, who ranked the Michigan quarterback 39th overall. He too was concerned with decision-making, the tendency to lock on to his first read and inconsistent accuracy.

It’s evident that McCarthy has talent to work with. His issues are ones that will likely need a redshirt year. Either that or experience in a system that will allow him to do more in terms of  progressions and reads. He likely won’t show a lot of growth in that Michigan scheme which would be a good reason for him to enter the draft.

Will McCarthy be a first round pick? Possibly. For different reasons, I think McCarthy will have a similar draft stock to Will Levis. Some view him has a true franchise QB while others won’t due to the question marks.

Dane Brugler at the Athletic fell into the middle, ranking McCarthy 21st overall. That’s close to his consensus ranking and his median ranking (both, in this case, 23rd). He loved McCarthy’s athleticism, arm strength and his improving anticipation, as well as his ability to throw accurately on the run. In his summary, he says:

Though McCarthy needs to add more bulk to his frame, he is a good-sized athlete who can operate from the pocket with balance, negotiate pressure and create plays with his mobility when needed. He is a loose passer, quick to process what the defense gives him and delivers with velocity and accuracy from various platforms (school -record 67.6 percent career completion percentage). However, his decision-making is still developing, and he must prove he can get further into his progressions. NFL teams describe him as a “winner” and love the way he is wired (Harbaugh calls him the “Ice Man” for the way he stays cool under pressure). Overall, McCarthy’s evaluation feels incomplete, which creates even more projection than normal, but his passing skills, pocket athleticism and mental makeup are all ascending and create optimism for his NFL future. Although bumps along the way should be expected, he has the package of tools to become an NFL starter early in his career.

What About NFL Scouts?

Our access to genuine NFL scouting reports is limited, but the ability of outlets to get tidbits from NFL personnel has expanded over the years. Bob McGinn’s poll of 15 scouts ranked McCarthy fourth among quarterback prospects. While the evaluators above focused on McCarthy’s on-field capabilities, scouts raved about his off-field.

“He’s got major weaknesses but there’s something about that kid that is absolutely special,” one scout said. “He completely changed that rivalry (Ohio State-Michigan). He singlehandedly won both of those games. The one in Columbus (in 2022), people don’t realize some of those throws he made in that game. Then his ability to never get off the field and extend plays is uncanny. All this talk that Michigan built him and it was (Jim) Harbaugh and the O-line. Their O-line sucked this year … The 9-inch hand and the way he throws the ball really scares me. It’s one speed. He has no ability to layer balls in between defenders. Everything’s a fastball. His deep balls are line drives, which is very unfriendly to receivers especially when he gets to this level and it’s contested and not just wide open. But there’s magic. There are these guys that seem to always do this and it always works. The throws by Mahomes early in his career when he’d throw into coverage and it somehow landed in the lap of the Kansas City guy. I don’t know if he’s got this magic to him or if it’s just luck.

Another scout told McGinn that he simply does not see McCarthy failing. Another said he actually overcame head coach Jim Harbaugh rather than benefiting from the tutelage. The lack of throws on film scared some scouts and one argued “everything about this guy is development.”

Photo by Aaron J. Thornton/Getty Images

One quarterback coach who talked to the Athletic’s Bruce Feldman echoed the concern with evaluable tape. “Their style of play and what he was asked to do, you don’t get a lot of answers that show up much on tape,” they told Feldman. A scout liked McCarthy but didn’t think he was someone capable of being relied upon as a rookie. And an offensive assistant echoed the one-speed concerns.

He does have talent. People like his personality. He’s a lot like Maye. I think there’s a long way to go for him. On tape, he over-strides a lot. Everything is a flat, hard rocket-shot. You have to throw over guys and around guys and take something off. I do think he can do that, but I don’t think it’s his default. And when something is not your default, you really got to work on it to iron it in.

ESPN conducted an exercise where they had NFL scouts pick for teams in a mock draft for the first ten picks. There weren’t any trades in the mock, but there also weren’t trades in the top nine of the real draft. Unfortunately, that meant that McCarthy didn’t go drafted. The scout picking for the Giants acknowledged the positional value difference but decided to go with Malik Nabers (nailed it!) because of the pure talent available there.

Jeremy Fowler did get scouts to talk to him about McCarthy, however, in an exercise stacking the quarterbacks. Like with the Consensus Board, Fowler found that executives were polarized on McCarthy. One said that he didn’t see McCarthy getting past five or six, saying “Anticipation, decision-making, preparation, coming from pro-style offense -- he's got a lot going for him. You see him process, go through progressions. That's an easier predictor of what it would look like at the NFL level.”

Another executive praised McCarthy’s leadership and mental makeup and a third loved his pro day. One coach argued that if Harbaugh had genuinely trusted McCarthy, that he would have thrown he ball more often. “Harbaugh didn't trust him like he did Andrew Luck. When he makes a mistake, Harbaugh leans into the running game even more so during the flow of the game.”

"I just don't see it," said an AFC scout of the McCarthy hype. "I don't see consistent accuracy, his ability to get it done inside the white lines, and [the Michigan staff] didn't call games or play offensively like they trusted him." But one reason he's rising? "What you're seeing now is the coaches and coordinators are more involved in the draft process [in March and April], and they are realizing, s---, he's a pro already," the NFC exec said. "And he showed more arm strength at his pro day than I thought he had."

Analytical Breakdown — What Do the Stats Say About J.J. McCarthy?

There are a lot of ways to break down the statistical production of a quarterback, but it’s important to separate the kinds of production that project well to future success and the kinds of production that can operate as red herrings.