Minnesota Vikings Stumble Into Embarrassing Win

The Minnesota Vikings 21-13 win over the Carolina Panthers is a welcome catharsis after weeks of frustration. But it wasn't really a get-right game — it won't be until they play well in every phase.

Photo by Grant Halverson/Getty Images

In a day where the defense only gave up six points and the offense showcased its explosive potential, the Vikings still found ways to raise eyebrows and invite questions into their process.

Nevertheless, their win over the winless Panthers should — if things go right — be the beginning of a turnaround that should allow them to challenge for the division.

The Vikings are fundamentally not a bad team. By some measures, they may even be an above-average team. But the issue is not that they failed to meet expectations as a potential playoff contender. That certainly is a problem, but the real issue is that they have to keep convincing us that they can be competent.

A one-score game against a struggling Panthers team that had been criticized for failing to support their rookie quarterback with receivers and an offensive line isn’t a resume-builder. Ideally, the Vikings would put a team like the Panthers away and demonstrate that they are who they thought they were.

And man, it feels weird complaining about a win in a league where wins are hard to come by and in a season where the Vikings couldn’t buy one on clearance. It’s nice to be able to take a bad win instead of a good loss. But that doesn’t mean the issues go away.

Defense Back On Track

The Carolina Panthers offense entered the game ranked 21st in EPA per play, 24th in points per game and 25th in points per drive. To see a defense perform well against them doesn’t seem to be any great feat, but it turns out that the Vikings defense performed even better than you’d expect.

You don’t get to pick who you play, so if you play a bad team you better play them well. And, to Brian Flores’ credit, the defense played well. 13 points isn’t a bad outing for a defense and that point total overstates what the Panthers offense accomplished. After all, the Vikings defense wasn’t responsible for the 99-yard pick-six, nor for the short field on the other interception.

All in all, the Panthers earned 79 yards on scoring drives. They were held to -0.23 expected points per play and a 39 percent success rate. Even excluding D.J. Wonnum’s scoop-and-score, the Panthers offense managed just -0.09 expected points per play.

That’s a deserved win for the defense and two changes might have been a big part of it.

First, the Vikings returned Marcus Davenport to the lineup. He earned a hit and a quarterback sack in the official box score, but he also did much more as a pressure producer, clearing up space for players like D.J. Wonnum — who may have had the best game of his career with his fumble-return touchdown, sack and two hits.

The second change was to bring Harrison Smith closer to the line of scrimmage. As a high safety, he’s been devastating over the course of his career. But it’s been clear that, this year, he’s had some issues generating the range necessary for that role in this defense.

Now, close to the line, he can either play as an extra presence in the box against the run or as a blitzing threat. He did so, earning 3.0 sacks, two TFLs and three quarterback hits. He forced a fumble and led the team in tackles.

This didn’t come at the cost of coverage. The Vikings consistently forced Young to throw short — he didn’t throw a single pass over 20 yards and averaged a depth of target of just 3.2 yards downfield. That resulted in middling production, earning just 6.4 yards per attempt on thrown passes and 4.0 yards per dropback when factoring in sacks.

That’s why the Panthers could only manage to convert 36 percent of their third down attempts. The blitz-heavy defense puts strain on the coverage defenders but primarily requires that the pass-rushers win their one-on-ones. On this Sunday, they did.

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