Please Stop Trying to Find the Next Joe Burrow
Four years later, we still haven't learned the right lessons about the breakout star of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Joe Burrow is ruining my life.
Ever since the face of the Bengals franchise came out of nowhere to become the #1 overall pick in 2020, unseating yearlong known quantities Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert, people have been obsessed with finding the next Burrow. The prospect who emerges from out of nowhere, as Burrow did after transferring to LSU after a few years as an afterthought at Ohio State, and saves a franchise from despair.
In 2021, we had BYU wunderkind Zach Wilson and his ridiculous pro day throw, which has ruined my life for completely different reasons. There was North Dakota State phenom Trey Lance, who started for the Bison in 2019 and then only played in one game in 2020.
Kenny Pickett’s fake slide in 2022 gave us the faintest hint of Burrow’s trademark swagger, and while Pickett was a multiyear starter at Pitt, their physical similarities brought on the comparisons anyway.
Will Levis was a contender for a similar phenomenon before deciding to return to Kentucky for the 2022 season. He transferred from a Big Ten school to the SEC, played one great season, and was a trendy first round selection before going back to school. Despite a weaker 2023 season, his hype cycle kept him in the top ten conversation.
2024’s closest nominee was Michigan QB JJ McCarthy, whose run to the national championship had people suggesting that Jim Harbaugh would trade Herbert for the chance to select McCarthy. Draft cycle rumor mills churned with speculation that McCarthy could be the second quarterback selected after USC’s Caleb Williams, a season-long lock to be the #1 overall pick.
In those four seasons, prospects with similar profiles to Burrow have done the following:
Wilson was the 60th best quarterback to take at least 16 snaps in 2023 by EPA/play. The Jets traded him this offseason to Denver, where he is the third-string quarterback behind Bo Nix and Jarrett Stidham.
Lance has played 263 NFL snaps, all with San Francisco, while dealing with injuries. He has not progressed as a passer and is now the third-string quarterback in Dallas behind Dak Prescott and Cooper Rush.
Pickett was traded to Philadelphia this offseason after two milquetoast seasons as the starter in Pittsburgh so that the Steelers could start over with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. He looked like the Eagles’ third-best quarterback behind Jalen Hurts and Tanner McKee.
Levis is the starter in Tennessee on a Titans team that has blown up the roster over the past two seasons. He was not a top ten pick, leading to an awkward green room camera shot on draft day, and was the 43rd best quarterback by EPA/play last season.
McCarthy was the fifth quarterback drafted, not the second, and then immediately tore his meniscus and will miss his entire rookie season with Minnesota because God hates the Vikings. He might still be good!
So, I ask: why do we keep doing this?
Joe Burrow is a Psychopath
Burrow emerging as the #1 overall pick in 2020 is an outlier, a statistical term for “this is not supposed to fucking happen, what the fuck.” If you walked outside tomorrow and a piano fell on your head ACME-style, the conclusion to draw would not be that pianos are going to start falling on your head all the time.
There’s a litany of reasons how Burrow became this outlier. He played on a mega-talented LSU team with a mega-talented coaching staff, for one. Thirty other players on that 2019 roster had at least a cup of coffee in the NFL. Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase are top ten wide receivers in all of football. The LSU secondary sent all four starters to the league. Three of Burrow’s five offensive linemen have started an NFL game. A fourth, right tackle Austin Deculus, is on the Saints practice squad.
Defensive coordinator Dave Aranda is now the head coach at Baylor. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady is the offensive coordinator of the Bills. Offensive line coach James Cregg coaches the same position for the Raiders. The 2019 LSU team is legendary for a reason - it was uniquely stacked in a way usually only Alabama and Georgia teams are. Burrow was the outlier in this regard also - modern Alabama and Georgia teams have had sterling recruits at quarterback to pair with these rosters, with the exception of the unkillable Stetson Bennett, who is also not Burrow.
Burrow is also insane. In a Seth Wickersham article on Bengals backup quarterback Jake Browning, released this morning, Browning recounts telling Burrow about a new pregame routine to lock in for games. The backup describes this routine as “turning into a serial killer,” to which Burrow replies, “Oh yeah. That’s where you gotta be.”
Athletes are, of course, largely in the same boat when it comes to this sort of mentality. But Wickersham details how Browning’s development of that mindset, which he found by mimicking Burrow, was a key cog in Browning’s ascension as the Bengals' fill-in quarterback last season.
The 2025 Crop
All of this is not to say that quarterbacks like Moss and Nussmeier didn’t play well this weekend. They did! It remains extremely unlikely nonetheless that they turn into players of Burrow’s caliber.
Miller Moss
Moss was 27-of-38 passing for 378 yards and a touchdown after throwing for a school-record 6 touchdowns in USC’s bowl game last season. After spending last year as the backup to Williams, it’s understandable why people are excited about the junior. He operates in structure well, throws with zip, and runs Lincoln Riley’s offense well. USC has a bevy of ultra-talented receivers who he spread the ball to nicely.
LSU’s secondary is also nowhere close to where it used to be, talent-wise. Riley’s offense is notoriously quarterback friendly. Moss was pressured only six times - he was sacked twice and 2-for-4 passing for 22 yards when he got the ball away.
Garrett Nussmeier
Nussmeier has said before that he thinks he has Joe Burrow-like qualities, which, sure. That’s fine. He’s not doing the level of cosplay that Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola is doing for Patrick Mahomes, but that’s okay. Not everyone is a method actor.
Taking over for #2 overall pick Jayden Daniels, Nussmeier was 29-of-38 passing for 304 yards, 2 touchdowns, and a late interception as LSU tried to get back into range for a last-second heave. He was also pressured six times, completing 4-of-6 passes for 59 yards.
USC is also not exactly a defensive powerhouse, although they looked much improved in their first game under coordinator D’Anton Lynn. Brian Kelly also already is throwing Nussmeier under the bus, which will surely not affect his morale if the season goes any more sideways.
Cameron Ward
Ward has been on draft radars forever, but I’m including him because people are starting to talk about him like he’s going to be the #1 overall pick in 2025.
In his first game at Miami, Ward was 26-of-35 passing for 385 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception while throwing the ball over the middle across his body, which is a throw I’ve seen Ward attempt approximately ten thousand times.
They were also playing Florida, whose immediate implosion following the loss has become an annual tradition under soon-to-be-fired Billy Napier. Ward is still reckless with the ball, a trait that works fine in college when you’re the best talent on the field but will wear thin in the NFL quickly.
I Get It, the Quarterback Class Sucks
Shaking a fist at the clouds in this manner is easily taken as hating, and I understand that. It’s exciting to see new names like Moss and Nussmeier play well, or to see Ward thriving in a new environment against nominally stronger competition. That’s what makes player evaluation fun, is that there are diamonds in the rough that appear every now and then.
It’s especially understandable in a quarterback class that lacks clear-cut elite prospects like this one does. Carson Beck looked good, but not necessarily great, against a strong Clemson defense. Shedeur Sanders has yet to play against a defense who have safeties that can run faster than 4.8 this season, putting his evaluation on standby. Conner Weigman, a preseason favorite to emerge as a prospect, struggled against a fierce Notre Dame defense. The class looks bad, and there’s a natural inclination to look for potential saving graces.
Quarterback is also, obviously, the position that generates the most discourse, intrigue, clicks, etc. There’s a lean towards sensationalizing those players - if you’re the first one to plant the flag on Miller Moss and he ends up being good, that’s a potentially career-altering call. I get it.
But also, it’s been one (1) week. Every player evaluation is built on a small sample size, I get that, but quarterbacks especially are evaluated on an overall body of work. NFL teams are going to look at how players adjusted during the season. How Nussmeier handles the loss and being called out by his coach for something that wasn’t really his fault. How Moss handles a physical Big Ten schedule that will probably force more pressure than LSU did on Sunday. If Ward maintains a rhythm while cutting down on the risky throws that will be interceptions in the NFL.
Maybe seven months from now, I’m the one that looks stupid for not believing in one of these kids after one game. I can live with that. I thought Justin Herbert was going to be a bad NFL player and refused to believe, as much as I wanted to, that Michael Penix Jr. would be drafted in the top ten. But it’s so early, guys.
Burrow’s path to the Heisman Trophy and #1 overall pick ran through six opponents ranked in the top ten. It’s doubtful that any of this year’s quarterbacks will face a similar gauntlet.
Outliers don’t suddenly become the norm. It’s time to stop expecting them to.