Post-Bust Revival: Which Quarterbacks Might Provide a Model for Sam Darnold To Succeed in Minnesota?

Is Sam Darnold due for post-bust clarity? We won't know until the season starts, but there are a number of quarterbacks that could provide the model for what that looks like.

Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/Getty Images

The Vikings decision to sign Sam Darnold was largely treated as a good move by analysts and was criticized by a good chunk of Vikings fandom, which meant that there was an interesting set of dynamics to explore.

For the most part, I attempted to dissect my thoughts on the question with this piece at Zone Coverage, but that question is secondary to today’s question – how often it happens that a quarterback struggles for so long early in their career only to revive it later on as a reasonable starting option.

The Vikings didn’t sign Darnold with the understanding that he would immediately become a Pro Bowl quality quarterback, instead making it clear that they’ll pursue a long-term answer in the NFL Draft. Darnold would provide competition in camp and operate as a potential bridge to that rookie’s entry into the NFL if it takes the younger quarterback a bit longer to get the hang of the offense.

But the possibility is intriguing, especially after Darnold put together a solid two years in spot duty for the Panthers and 49ers. That only constitutes 202 dropbacks, which is hardly a reasonable sample, but it does at least suggest that things have changed.

How often does that happen?

I looked through quarterbacks who struggled in their first several years in the NFL using Stathead, a tack-on service provided by the sports-reference network. I looked at quarterbacks who threw worse than league average in Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt in their first three years and compared that to quarterbacks who threw better than league average in their fifth years and beyond in order to get a decent set of players.

That list didn’t accord entirely with public perception, so after doing that I eliminated or added quarterbacks based off of the vibe I got from their careers. Jeff George and Alex Smith? In. Sam Bradford and Teddy Bridgewater? Out.

There are, of course, quarterbacks whose early struggles were significant but didn’t last as long. The most obvious examples of those are Josh Allen and Troy Aikman, who put up some of the worst era-adjusted numbers for a rookie and second-year quarterback for their respective franchises before turning it around in their third year.

Both received postseason honors for how well they played from that point on, turning into deadly passers for perennial Super Bowl contenders. They don’t really count as great comparisons in this instance because of Darnold’s extended drought of good play – a drought that even lasted through his first team change to include his first year in Carolina, where he put up even worse numbers than he did as a rookie in New York.

In order to get a good sense of what the comparison list is, let’s go through quarterbacks that struggled as relatively high picks and then revived their careers with the team that initially drafted them. After that, we can go through quarterbacks who saw a revival outside of that team.

Quarterback Same-Team Revivals

Steve Bartkowski

One thing one learns from this exercise is that teams held on to quarterbacks much longer in the 1970s than they do today. Steve Bartkowski, who was drafted by the Atlanta Falcons with the first overall pick in 1975, is one such example. Interestingly, Bartkowski did win offensive rookie of the year, but volume may have played a role in that. Voters in the past were less concerned with rate stats.

From 1975 to 1978, Bartkowski ranked 30th among all quarterbacks in adjusted net yards per attempt and passer rating, getting worse before getting better. The 1977 Falcons, who put together one of the best defenses the NFL has ever seen, only went 3-4 with Bartkowski as a starter. He had three consecutive seasons with a completion rate below 50 percent – low even in the 1970s.

In 1980 and 1981, he had two Pro Bowl seasons and even earned MVP votes. This was all well-deserved. His level of play ratcheted up and Atlanta, briefly, turned into a winning franchise. He turned his deep shots and risk-averse play into a positive, with touchdowns raining from the sky – leading the league in touchdowns in 1980 with 31.

While his 1982 season was a return to mediocrity, the 1983 season may have been his best yet, earning a passer rating of 97.6 (leading the league) and an uncommonly high adjusted net yards per attempt of 6.28. Unfortunately, that concurred with a legendary quarterback draft class and the rise of Joe Montana.

Nevertheless, Bartkowski remains an interesting example of a player who skated near the bottom of the league in most performance metrics before becoming a valuable asset to his team.