The Anatomy of a Perfect Game, Part 2

Matt Fries is back to dissect the defense behind a perfect game, but this time, the "perfection" comes from the quarterback. How did the defense fail? What does it mean going forward?

Photo by Anthony Souffle/The Minnesota Star Tribune via Getty Images

158.3.

Mathematically, that’s the highest passer rating, the NFL’s official stat for judging passing performances. In other words, 158.3 is a perfect passer rating. And it’s relevant here because Jalen Hurts, the Philadelphia Eagles’ QB, achieved that rare mark against the Minnesota Vikings in their 28-22 victory on Sunday.

Hurts’ final statline was 19/23 for 326 yards and 3 TDs, a very impressive line for any player. It’s backed up by advanced statistics, as Hurts produced a stellar 0.701 EPA/play on 29 plays, the best of any QB per rbsdm.com. NFL Pro and NextGenStats have him at plus-0.62 EPA/dropback and plus-16.1 EPA as a passer overall.

That plus-16.1 is a volume stat, and it’s impressive that Hurts ranked second in the NFL for week 7, despite having only 26 dropbacks, 14 fewer than Patrick Mahomes’ 40. Mahomes accrued plus-20.9 EPA on his dropbacks.

Despite those gaudy numbers, it didn’t always feel like Hurts was having a performance for the ages. The Eagles scored on their first drive, but then got just one first down for the remainder of the first half. The Vikings’ offense just happened to make so many blunders that they were never able to capitalize. As Arif put it in his post-game piece:

The Minnesota Vikings outpaced the Philadelphia Eagles in total offensive yards, total first downs, third-down conversion rate, fourth-down conversion rate, penalty yardage and time of possession.

At no point did it seem like the Vikings were in control of the game. Losing 28-22 felt, in some ways, like a mercy.

A Shocking Deep Passing Performance

The advanced box score from rbsdm backs up those thoughts. The Vikings had a much higher success rate on offense than the Eagles did. In fact, the Eagles’ 38.8% success rate ranked 21st of the 30 teams that played in week 7. Explosive plays are what killed the Vikings.

Eagles were successful in this game because of their performance in the intermediate and deep passing game. Hurts went 9/12 for 284 yards and 3 TDs on passes that went 10-plus yards downfield, per TruMedia. That’s an incredible plus-24.2 total EPA added. The Eagles ran 38 other plays, and LOST a combined -13.8 EPA on those plays.

It’s worth noting that the Vikings’ defense had not only been good but excellent at both deterring and stopping the deep and intermediate passing game up until that point in the 2025 season. Looking at TruMedia’s data, the Vikings held the combination of Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., Jake Browning, Aaron Rodgers, and Dillon Gabriel to a combined 15/34 for 354 yards, with 1 TD and 2 INTs. That’s a passer rating of 67.5.

It gets even more impressive when you look at the advanced numbers. From weeks 1-5, the Vikings’ defense generated plus-0.29 EPA/play (in this case, a positive number is good for the defense) on passes of 10-plus yards, far and away the best in the NFL.

The Denver Broncos were 2nd in that timeframe, with a dead-even 0.00 EPA/play generated. While that sample does include Isaiah Rodgers’ pick six, it also includes the 80-yard DK Metcalf TD, which, while technically an intermediate pass, was really a quick game concept. The success was backed up by more than just big plays, and the Vikings’ 57.1% defensive success rate (a higher percentage is better for the defense) was 8th in the NFL at that point.

It’s also noteworthy that the Vikings were effective at deterring deep passes as well. The 35 attempts in that span were the 3rd fewest in the NFL, behind only the Dolphins and Bears. The Bears had a week 5 bye, so only 4 games were counted in the sample, and the Dolphins were allowing the worst EPA/play on defense over that span.

How were the Eagles passing the ball in that range? Middle of the pack. Hurts ranked 27th of 34 qualifying passers from weeks 1-6 in success rate, at 40.8% (we’re back to a higher percentage being better for the offense) and 15th in EPA/DB, at plus-0.42.

That makes the Eagles' success against the Vikings pretty surprising. The plus-24.2 EPA gained on 10-plus yard passes was the most for any team in a game this season, and the plus-2.02 EPA/play the Eagles gained was the third most for a team this season, and by far the most without an extremely limited number of attempts.

The Packers attempted just 1 deep pass against the Browns in week 3, and the Steelers got the aforementioned Metcalf play on one of just 3 deep attempts in week 4 against the Vikings. The Patriots also hit the plus-2.02 EPA/play mark against the Dolphins on 4 attempts in Week 2.

By the way, it’s not like the Vikings’ overall pass defense was bolstered by just the one play in the Bengals’ game. They have 3 of the top 20 defensive performances against 10-plus yard passes this season — the Bengals, Falcons, and Browns games.

The reality is that the game turned in the Eagles’ favor on just eight plays. Every big play the Eagles had was backbreaking for the defense, and led to successful drives.

There was the touchdown on the first drive, a 4th and 4 shot to A.J. Brown for 37 yards. On the Eagles’ first drive out of the half, they hit a deep bomb to DeVonta Smith for 27 yards.

Then came a pair of more methodical drives, with Hurth hitting Smith twice, including on a 3rd and 15, to attempt a field goal, and three passes, including a 3rd and 13 conversion, on the Eagles’ final TD drive. The final play was a bomb to Brown on 3rd and 9 that enabled them to run the clock out.

Let’s break down the plays in detail and see if this might be a problem for the Vikings moving forward.

Film Study

You can classify the 8 plays above into three different categories: extended plays, zone blitzes, and individual losses. Let’s take a look at each to understand the root causes.

Extended Plays

A.J. Browns’ First Touchdown

The first play in this sample was Brown’s first TD. It’s 4th and 4, and the Eagles look like they’re planning to pass. They line up in a 3x1 formation, with a bunch to the right and a TE as the lone receiver left. The Vikings are in a Man alignment, with Theo Jackson shading to the side of the bunch to help over the top.