Vikings Fall Short on Christmas Eve, Lose 30-24 in Yet Another Close Game

The Minnesota Vikings couldn't help but disappoint during the holiday season, but that should force us to reassess what disappointment really is.

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Nick Mullens is a dangerous quarterback. To whom exactly he is dangerous to seems to change from play to play. The Minnesota Vikings lost by one score, again, this time to the Detroit Lions – a 30-24 affair that was one throw away from going the other way.

They lost that game because Mullens’ throw somehow lost all of its mustard on release. They only got in position for that fourth quarter to matter because Mullens somehow found opportunities for some of the Vikings’ incredible receiving corps. Or at least what was left of it.

He played the least efficient, most efficient game I think I’ve seen from a quarterback in recent years. He averaged 11.42 yards per attempt on 36 attempts, the 14th-best such mark in the 460 quarterback performances this year with at least 14 passing attempts. Only two players – Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott – have generated a higher average on at least 30 passing attempts.

In terms of yardage value over average (6.94 yards per attempt in 2023), Mullens ranks sixth this year. But he didn’t just throw big plays. He also threw picks, almost-picks and fumbled the ball once – nearly twice.

A 400-yard game with four interceptions isn’t unheard of, but it’s pretty rare. Only two quarterbacks in the last decade have thrown for 400 yards with four interceptions in the regular season, and it’s who you’d expect: Most recently, in Week 6 of the 2019 season, Jameis Winston threw five picks to the Carolina Panthers while playing for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He earned exactly 400 passing yards. Just one year prior, Blake Bortles threw four picks to the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 5, throwing for 430 yards.

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Neither of them cracked 7.5 yards per attempt or a completion rate of 56 percent. Mullens managed to do it with one of the best YPAs you’ll see all year and a completion rate of 61.1 percent – 62.9 when getting rid of the spike.

So, what was the net effect of that, and the negative fumble recovered by Justin Jefferson?

Well, Mullens averaged 0.16 expected points added per play, a 64th percentile outcome. Part of that came from his 99th percentile average depth of target, 15.1 yards downfield.

In fact, only one player this year had a deeper depth of target in an individual game: Jameis Winston, in his Week 10 matchup against the Vikings in relief of Derek Carr.

To Mullens’ credit, his style of play allowed him to get out of the holes he dug for himself. Reverting to careful play would have been a mistake. He also needed to be aggressive in the final drive.

Courtesy Next Gen Stats

Completing those passes overcame the negative plays – sometimes literally, as the 3rd-and-27 conversion to Jefferson, nearly a carbon copy of his incredible 4th down catch against Buffalo, made up for a fumble that lost them 17 yards.

It might be appropriate that the Vikings made this a White-Out game given how often they had to cover over their mistakes.

So, was Mullens actually a net positive despite making the most frustrating plays imaginable and high turnover rate? On paper, yes. But nothing he showed on film suggested he was a good quarterback in the abstract.