Vikings Offense Steps Up When Defense Stumbles, Defeat Bears 30-27

The Vikings have failed to produce wins when the defense falters. This time, they did. So, why did it feel bad?

Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images

The Vikings have been successful at Soldier Field in recent years and have put together five wins in a row now, including their most recent 30-27 victory over the Chicago Bears. Nevertheless, there is a spectre of failure haunting the fanbase when it comes to these away games – one not easily contained by discussing the data.

After all, the Vikings are not only 5-0 in those games, they are 4-1 against the spread, with their three-point win just now the one loss against the expectation that the betting public had for them. The Vikings are not only expected to win these games that they’ve won, they exceeded their expectations when it comes to the final score.

But either the trauma of past disappointments – 3-14 on the scoreboard and against the spread between 2003 and 2019 – or the lackluster manner of their wins (and covers) has habituated them to wondering why they can’t simply put the Bears away when the Bears are meant to be put away.

So too with this game and this season. Throughout the Vikings’ four-game winning streak, they’ve won against mediocre teams in ways that suggest the Vikings’ are merely just better than mediocre themselves. Like it or not, the Vikings have put themselves in a position to be more than that.

There’s not much to assure fans that they really are “as good as their record,” but we can break down this game.

The Vikings Offense Cooks

It will, correctly, be remembered as Jordan Addison’s breakout game for the Minnesota Vikings. With 162 yards on eight targets, Addison outproduced every receiver in a game where the gathered wideouts and tight ends had 11 first-ballot Pro Bowls between them. An interesting note on that statistic: D.J. Moore has never made the Pro Bowl on the first ballot.

The Vikings scored 2.5 points per drive, an elite rate given their opponent, and secured more than 0.09 expected points per play despite a goal-line fumble. Their success rate of 42 percent was also in above-average territory.

Sam Darnold Shines Again

This offensive production is in part because of how well the running game was working at the beginning and end of regulation but much of it was how well Sam Darnold himself played.

A 76th-percentile EPA per play performance against a top-five defense deserves to be lauded, especially after he tightened up in the second half; his aggregate performance – plus-0.58 expected points added per play, a 98th percentile performance – was outstanding, but it was built entirely on big plays, like the 45-yard pass to Jordan Addison at the end of the first quarter.

The inconsistency might have been a concern, as he produced a sub-60 percent completion rate with a low depth of target. Even after accounting for the drops, it wasn’t the kind of follow-up performance one might hope for after a stellar game against the Titans.

But Darnold produced both explosiveness and consistency in the second half; a 68.2 percent completion rate combined with 11.3 yards per attempt helped secure the Vikings’ narrow win against Chicago. On the whole, this meant an outstandingly positive performance from Darnold.