Will Your Favorite Underdog Clear Waivers?

Every year, fans and journalists debate whether their favorite bubble players will "clear waivers" or if they should make different cuts to prevent that risk. Is it a real risk?

Photo Credits: Kalif Raymond (Amy Lemus/NurPhoto), Taysom Hill (Kevin C. Cox). Khadarel Hodge (Perry Knotts) all via Getty Images

Will Elijah Williams clear waivers?

If you’re not plugged into the minutiae of Vikings training camp roster math, it’s unlikely you’ve heard of Elijah Williams. Williams, unranked on the Consensus Big Board, wasn’t signed by any team in the period following the draft. Instead, he had to make his way onto the Vikings’ 90-man camp roster after rookie tryouts.

Williams was the 153rd-ranked defensive tackle in Dane Brugler’s Beast. Not the 153rd player, but the 153rd defensive tackle. He wasn’t invited to the NFL Combine; instead, he worked out at the HBCU Combine, where he posted average scores for his position.

He is the career sack leader for Morgan State, generating that production while lined up on the edge and at defensive tackle, but it’s still a relatively thin resume.

But his performance in training camp and the preseason has excited Vikings fans, especially after the Vikings may have signaled their trust in their defensive line depth by trading Harrison Phillips, their starting nose tackle, to the New York Jets.

Still, the roster math is difficult. Jonathan Allen, Javon Hargrave, Jalen Redmond, Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins, Levi Drake Rodriguez and Taki Taimani are likely ahead of Williams. It is hard to envision a roster spot for Williams if the Vikings keep a fairly typical five-man group at the position, and even six is pushing it.

The question is whether the Vikings will keep seven defensive tackles or expose Williams to waivers. And to figure that out, they need to determine the likelihood that a player who no team was interested in for months would suddenly sacrifice a 53-man roster spot for someone whom they hadn’t done any homework on.

The same can be said for Chargers fans worried about Nikko Reed or Marlowe Wax, Patriots fans worried about Ben Wooldridge, Ravens fans worried about Jay Higgins, Bears fans worried about Jahdae Walker and Bills fans worried about Shane Buechele.

Some of those players will make their roster outright, and perhaps one or two of them, if cut, will be claimed. But the vast majority of players – even ones you like – won’t have to worry about it. Let’s do the math.

How Many Players Are Claimed?

Waiver claims following cutdown day have dropped in the past decade. From 2015 to 2019, 186 players were claimed, or 37.2 per year. That’s about 4.4 percent of all cuts and 5.3 percent of all those eligible for waiver claims. The pandemic year, 2020, saw the fewest waiver claims – 17.

That’s not shocking; fewer low-experience flyers, like undrafted rookies, were signed. Even fewer players were subject to waivers. On top of that, without a preseason, there were fewer opportunities for those who slipped under the radar to make waves.

Following that, however, was a muted rebound. Instead of 37 waiver claims per year, we saw 28.5. That’s 2.7 percent of all cutdown day terminations and 3.4 percent of all waivers.

How Many Rookies Are Claimed?

Only about a quarter of the waiver claims are made for rookies, with the majority geared toward third- and fourth-year players – typically draft busts – more on that in a second.