Re-Ranking the Top Wide Receivers From the 2024 NFL Draft
James Foster watched the 13 top-performing rookie receivers from last season and ranked them based on their tape.
The 2024 draft class was viewed as a historic collection of offensive talent, stacked with blue-chip prospects at offensive tackle, quarterback and wide receiver. And NFL teams confirmed this by selecting a record 23 offensive players in the first round.
Six quarterbacks were picked on night one, tying the 1983 record, and five went in the top 10 for the first time in history. Round 1 also featured eight offensive tackles for the first time since 2008, and seven wide receivers for the first time since 2004.
The Colts selecting Laiatu Latu 15th overall marked the latest that the first defensive player had come off the board, beating the previous record of 8th overall in 2021.
This class was an unprecedented influx of elite talent at premium positions. However, highly-rated prospects aren’t guaranteed to pan out, and we now have a full year of tape to evaluate whether the hype translated to the NFL.
I will cover the quarterback and offensive tackle classes later this summer, but I’m starting my review with the receivers. This week, I studied the 13 most productive receivers from last year’s class, wrote scouting reports on their rookie tape and graded them based on updated projections.
In this piece, I’ll re-rank the 2024 wide receiver class and give in-depth breakdowns of each player’s skill set.
The early returns are promising, as three rookie receivers eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards for the first time in a decade. There’s a good chance that 2024 is the best receiver class since at least 2014, with the potential to be a top-10 class ever.
While it’s too early to compare this group to the 2014 class that includes Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandin Cooks, this class can rival the all-time greats if enough players reach their potential.
In this piece:
Glossary/Methodology
For each receiver, I watched every target, route vs. man coverage and third and fourth-down route. This is an extensive sample that provides a detailed picture of the receiver’s performance, but it isn’t all-encompassing.
Remember that there are some important run blocking snaps and early-down routes vs. zone that I didn’t watch.
Each report includes:
· Skill ratings
· Position
· High-end/low-end projections
· Strengths & weaknesses
· Write-up
A lot of this is self-explanatory, so feel free to skip this section if you’re only here for the rankings. I included this glossary to ensure we’re on the same page and to avoid repeating definitions throughout the piece.
Skill Ratings
I assigned every player a rating of 0-100 across 25 core skills and traits. The rating scale is relative to NFL starters, with 50 equaling “adequate,” ≥ 75 equaling “very good” and ≤ 25 equaling “poor.”
You can view all of these ratings as a sortable table here.
Each scouting report contains a graphic like this:
Defining Core Traits & Skills
Let’s briefly define each trait and skill so that what I’m rating is clear. Some of these include multiple skills and could be split into separate ratings.
The overall score for each category is the final output of a convoluted series of calculations that would be boring to explain in detail, so here’s a quick synopsis.
I calculate a raw score for each category based on this weighting table (e.g., Play Strength makes up 20% of the Athleticism score, Speed 28%, etc.):
Then, the raw scores are normalized to a 0–100 scale, with 100 representing a realistic upper limit based on the top player in that category. For example, Julio Jones is the benchmark for WR Athleticism. I estimated his ratings and designated his raw score as the normalization maximum.
The point of this is to generate overall scores that can be higher or lower than the average for that category. A player with an 85 in every athleticism rating would be one of the NFL’s best athletes and should have a much higher overall score than 85.
WR Positions
I categorized each receiver as one (or more) specific position. For most, it’s where they played last year, but there are a few players with proven or projectable ability to play a different position.
X (Split End): Boundary receiver that lines up on the LOS. Usually bigger linear athletes who run a specialized route tree. Must be able to defeat press coverage.
Z (Flanker): Boundary receiver that lines up off the LOS. Wide range of skill sets and body types. Usually, a well-rounded athlete with average size who can run a diverse route tree, but might struggle against press coverage.
Slot: Inside receiver that lines up off the LOS. Size and speed thresholds are much less stringent. This is often the slowest and smallest starting receiver. Important traits include short-area quickness, run blocking and toughness to secure the ball in traffic.
High/Low Projections
I also gave players high-end and low-end projections, representing the extreme ends of their realistic range of outcomes.
I don’t like confining young players to a “floor” or “ceiling” (no one would have said Tom Brady had a high ceiling after his rookie year), so think of these as 90th and 10th-percentile outcomes.
1. Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
Position: X
High Projection: Perennial Pro-Bowler, Occasional All-Pro/Top-1-3 WR
Low Projection: High-end #2 vertical threat (prime Martavis Bryant-caliber WR)
Biggest Strengths
Size & speed
Annihilates press coverage
Quick slants & digs
Deceleration on comebacks
Ball-tracking over the shoulder
Biggest Weaknesses
Inefficient out-breaking routes
Average zone route runner
Occasional focus drops & double catches
Doesn’t weaponize his frame at the catch point
Average creativity after the catch
We’re leading off with Brian Thomas Jr., who led all rookies with 1,282 receiving yards and 18 20-plus yard receptions in the regular season. Thomas Jr. had the best rookie-receiver season from this class, and he should be a top-tier boundary receiver soon.
He played most of his snaps at X, using his premier blend of size and athleticism to dominate man coverage on the vertical plane. His 4.33 speed and 6-foot-3-inch frame make him a challenging assignment for most defensive backs.
He has immediate burst off the line of scrimmage and elite long speed to outpace single coverage. Those physical traits, combined with his advanced release package, allow him to carve up press-man easily.
His eight receptions of 25-plus air yards were the fourth most among receivers, but he should have had twice that. Thomas Jr. stacked man coverage and created downfield separation consistently, but he wasn’t always targeted, or targeted accurately, when he got open.
He had 11 uncatchable targets of 20-plus air yards (fourth most in the NFL), along with a slew of open routes that went untargeted. Every receiver has some production left on the field due to external factors.
Still, Thomas Jr. was particularly unlucky, and the depth of his routes makes every missed opportunity sting more. He could have finished with 1,500-plus yards and 12-14 touchdowns if Trevor Lawrence or Mac Jones were slightly more accurate.
Thomas Jr.’s route tree primarily consisted of verticals and hitches/curls. For a bigger receiver, he’s surprisingly fluid when sinking his hips and decelerating on stop routes. He runs these comebacks/stops at an unpredictable tempo, making it difficult for defenders to read his stem and anticipate his break. The threat of his vertical push also forces defenders to bail aggressively, creating more space underneath.
He was most effective running slants, although they made up just 3.3 percent of his total routes. His ability to win a clean release and cross the defender’s face made him nearly uncoverable on quick slants, and new Jaguars head coach Liam Coen should expand this portion of his route tree.
Jacksonville used him on slants more frequently later in the year, as 77 percent of his slant routes came in his last seven games.
His other routes were mostly 10-15 yard outs and digs (26.3%). He’s an average separator on out-breakers (12.1%), as he loses precision in his footwork on more complex routes.
Thomas Jr. is relatively efficient on simple speed-outs. When he faces outside leverage and must use more complex footwork to set up his breaks, he struggles stringing his steps together and can’t always complete the route with good timing.
However, his in-breaking routes (16.2%) are textbook. Defenders struggle to stick with his breaks on digs, posts and deep crossers. Against off-man, he uses rocker steps to freeze flat-footed defenders at the top of the route. On standard digs, he uses a head fake and hard plant step with the outside foot (pressure step) to set up his breaks.
Thomas Jr.’s hands are average, and he’s less assertive at the catch point than he should be, given his elite traits.
Cleaning up focus drops (and double catches), working back to the ball consistently on deep targets and being more competitive at the catch point are critical for him to reach his potential.
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