Will Max Brosmer Outperform J.J. McCarthy?

Matt Fries looks at the biggest problems in J.J. McCarthy's play so far and compares them to Max Brosmer's skillset to see if Brosmer might actually be more prepared to play against the Seahawks

Photo by Jevone Moore/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

On Monday, Minnesota Vikings’ HC Kevin O’Connell announced that the team had put quarterback J.J. McCarthy in concussion protocol after he experienced symptoms following the Vikings’ 23-6 loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Given that the concussion protocol is a multi-step process that requires day-by-day progression to be cleared from, it’s unlikely that McCarthy will be ready for the Vikings’ Week 13 game against the Seattle Seahawks.

In McCarthy’s absence, O’Connell noted that rookie undrafted quarterback Max Brosmer would take first team reps. O’Connell did not commit to McCarthy missing the game, but Adam Schefter later reported that Brosmer would be the starter if McCarthy does miss time. The other option is John Wolford, a journeyman QB who O’Connell coached with the Rams.

Brosmer, who played his final season of college football at the University of Minnesota, quickly won over the hearts of combo Golden Gophers-Vikings fans with his impressive preseason performances. His play over the preseason ultimately earned him a roster spot. Given McCarthy’s struggles over the past few weeks, a portion of the fan base was already getting restless and talking about the idea of starting Brosmer. McCarthy’s injury looks like it will bring that idea to fruition.

Brosmer will likely perform better than McCarthy statistically – it would be almost impossible not to. I’m sure by now you’ve seen the stat that McCarthy ranks 2nd-to-last among all QBs in EPA per Dropback since 2000, ahead of only JaMarcus Russell:

But will Brosmer give the Vikings a chance to win against the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday? To find out, I decided to contrast the struggles we’ve seen from McCarthy to what Brosmer put on tape in the preseason.

McCarthy has had a number of struggles, but I want to break them down between what’s going on before the throw, what’s happening from a dropback and pocket management standpoint, and what’s going on post-throw from an accuracy and decision-making standpoint. I’ll contrast that with Brosmer’s performance in these categories.

Obviously, the two are intertwined, and the upstream dropback process impacts the downstream timing and accuracy, which will become apparent as we go through this.

Let’s dive in.

Pocket Management and Footwork

During the Vikings’ three-game losing streak, McCarthy has demonstrated significant issues tying the top of his dropback to the route combinations he’s reading. To properly set the play’s timing, the quarterback needs to be lined up to throw to his first option at receiver by the time he hits the top of his drop.

McCarthy will often set up with his feet lined down the middle before readjusting to throw to his first read. The play below against the Ravens is a good example. You can see McCarthy line up his feet on the hashes before he readjusts his front foot to line up to throw to Adam Thielen on the shallow route.

He gets the ball off in this case, but Thielen has to slow down a little and McCarthy takes contact because he had to re-adjust his feet before throwing the ball.

In Brosmer’s exposure so far, he’s been really good at getting lined up to throw correctly and that has allowed him to play with proper timing. This throw to Dontae Fleming in the preseason is a good example:

Single examples are nice, but the reality is this type of precision is needed on an every-snap basis. I think this is an interesting part of McCarthy’s game because he was pretty good at lining up his feet during the first two weeks of the season (as shown in the video below), and it feels like that ability has degraded over time.

This alignment allowed him to complete a number of anticipation throws over the first few weeks, but has also fallen out of his game since returning from injury.

Throughout his preseason tape, Brosmer does a really good job of staying lined up to throw and getting out his first read throws with great timing.

McCarthy also has a pocket management issue that has led him to trouble as the season has progressed. When you’re hitching to throw, the most efficient way to do it is with small movements that keep your feet relatively the same width apart. This gives you a base that is consistently ready to throw.

In recent weeks, McCarthy has been what the excellent J.T. O’Sullivan refers to as “heel clicky.” This means that his feet come together as he climbs (ergo, his heels click together). This narrowing of the base means you need to bring your feet apart to throw, which takes more time. It also leads to less efficient use of pocket space, and you can end up in bad position.

McCarthy sustained a minor hand injury during the Ravens game, in part due to this heel-clicking tendency. On the play below, he violently climbs the pocket, his feet coming close together both times, before releasing a throw where his hand hits into the back of Donavan Jackson and a defender on the follow-through.

This also led to accuracy issues. On the play below in the first Bears’ game, McCarthy’s throw ended up behind Jefferson in part because you can see a significant heel click, which slows the timing down just a tad and prevents him from consistently orienting his base towards his target.

Contrast that to what Brosmer is able to do on the play below. You can see him have to climb up, but he never lets his feet get too close together. This allows him some separation from the guard that is getting driven back, and he can easily get the throw off on the corner to Myles Price without an impact on the follow-through.

Heel clicking can occasionally be necessary based on pocket circumstances. In some cases, quarterbacks need to climb violently up in the pocket to avoid potential pressure, which means they need to push off more powerfully with their back foot, naturally getting it closer to their front foot.

The key is to get the footwork back under control after that violent movement, something Brosmer has also shown the ability to do. This contrasts with McCarthy, who has struggled to get on track.